Tory turnaround shows the 'Kemi effect' may be starting to work

Conservatives have said their good results in the local elections in a north London borough are the result of the "Kemi effect".

The party, which won 801 seats in this year's local elections, said Kemi Badenoch's "honesty" when confronting hate marches and tackling anti-Semitism had led to a surge in support from Jewish voters in places such as Barnet and Harrow.

Labour lost 10 seats and the Conservatives gained nine in Barnet, meaning the council went from a Labour majority to no overall control. In Harrow, 42 Conservative councillors were elected - an increase of 11 - while Labour returned 12 councillors, just half of its previous total.

Many areas with high Jewish populations, such as Barnet and Harrow, saw larger-than-expected turnouts. Among the winners were Conservatives Peter Zinkin and Dean Cohen, who both won seats in Golders Green with more than 2,000 votes.

In Barnet's Edgwarebury ward, Benjamin Goldberg and Lachya Gurung increased the vote share of the Conservatives, and in Whetstone, Stephen Lewis, a Conservative councillor, triumphed over Labour's Ella Rose by just 90 votes.

"People have responded well to Kemi's honesty in calling the rise of anti-Semitism in our country what it is: an emergency," a Conservative source told The Telegraph.

"She has been clear: if you want to spread hatred and violence towards Jews, you are not welcome in Britain," another Conservative source said.

One newly elected Tory councillor told the Jewish News: "Without a doubt, Kemi has had a positive impact on the vote here in Barnet.

"There may have been local issues, but Kemi's stance on anti-Semitism, along with her staunch support for Israel, clearly made a difference for many Jewish voters here."

Outlining the blue bounce, Alistair Jones, a political analyst, said: "The Conservatives were expecting a hammering.

"They did badly. But they also mounted a very clever plan to defend some of their territory and also to attack the Labour Party.

"They developed this short-term strategy of appealing to large parts of the Jewish vote in north London.

"So in Barnet and other places where there have been small gains, these act as crumbs of comfort that there is still a viable and functioning grass-roots Conservative party.

"So the question is now, for the Tories, how do they broaden their appeal?"

Mrs Badenoch previously said Barnet, alongside Wandsworth and Westminster, was a key Tory London target the Conservatives planned to focus on in this year's local elections.

Wandsworth council - which was reportedly Margaret Thatcher's favourite local authority - was held by the Tories for 44 years from 1978.

In 2022, it was won by Labour in a surprise victory, with Westminster also turning red that year.

On Friday, Labour lost overall control of Wandsworth, with the Conservatives winning 29 seats compared with Labour's 28.

The council currently has no overall control, The Telegraph, however, understands the Conservatives are confident they will be running the administration. In Westminster, the Conservatives won an outright majority.

"At the local level our pitch has always been lower taxes, better value for money and good management" one Tory source said.

"Westminster is a good example of this. It went to Labour in 2022 for the first time ever.

"Voters have given it four years and decided they don't like what they've got from Labour, and we've won them back."

Fighting back against the Reform UK onslaught, Conservatives also managed to hold on to Broxbourne borough council in Hertfordshire as well as Fareham, which is in Suella Braverman's constituency.

Despite the glimmers of success, there is no denying that the Conservatives took a hammering at the ballot box, losing more than 400 seats as Britain moves from a two-party to a five-party political system.

"The losses are tough," one source said, "but the trends behind the numbers are encouraging".

Emphasising this point, the Conservatives point to successes in additional areas, such as Harlow and Enfield, where they have shored up support.

The Tories believe that the green shoots of Mrs Badenoch's popularity, success and strong leadership are starting to show.