Opinion: Alberta's referendum debate is missing the financial questions that matter most

When politicians debate Alberta separation, they talk about pipelines, equalization and constitutional authority. Those are real debates. But for most Albertans, the questions are more immediate -- What happens to my CPP? Is my savings account still insured? Do my TFSA contributions carry over?

Nobody is giving straight answers. Here's what we actually know.

Your pension

CPP is jointly governed by the federal government and the provinces. Every Albertan who has contributed to it, and every retiree drawing from it, is relying on an arrangement that depends on Alberta being part of the country.

The Alberta government commissioned a report in 2023 projecting Alberta's share of CPP assets at roughly $334 billion, a figure the federal chief actuary disputes.

What isn't disputed is that any transition would be negotiated between governments that may not agree on much else. If you're within a decade of retirement, that timeline is not abstract.

Your deposit insurance

CDIC insures eligible deposits up to $100,000 per category at member banks. It's federal. An independent Alberta would need to build its own equivalent from scratch, or negotiate some form of continued membership.

Your deposits are almost certainly protected during a transition. What Alberta builds to replace CDIC long-term is another question that needs answering.

Your mortgage

Two federal programs shape every Alberta mortgage. CMHC provides default insurance for high-ratio buyers. OSFI's stress test sets the qualification bar for federally regulated lenders. Both are in play under separation.

Alberta would need its own mortgage insurance program or leave high-ratio buyers without coverage. If the new regulatory regime skips a stress test equivalent, qualification rules could change in ways that sound appealing until rates move.

Your registered accounts

TFSA contribution room, RRSP limits and FHSA accounts are all created by federal legislation and administered by the CRA. The contribution room you've built up over the years exists because Canada does.

An independent Alberta would need to create its own equivalents or negotiate a continuation arrangement. What happens to existing contribution history, who administers it and whether the limits carry over are all unsettled.

Your taxes

Alberta has provincial income tax but no provincial sales tax. Separation would end the federal layer -- no federal income tax, no GST no EI premiums no CPP contributions.

That sounds like a windfall. It isn't, not straightforwardly.

Those payments were funding health transfers, infrastructure and employment insurance. Alberta would need to replace that revenue.

How, and at what rates are choices no one has discussed publicly.

The part no one is talking about

None of this is an argument for or against separation. These are financial questions that need real answers before a vote is cast and, right now, they don't have them.

Albertans are being asked to form an opinion on something that would touch every financial decision they make.

A vote is coming. The financial picture isn't ready. Those two things shouldn't coexist.

Jeff Adamson is co-founder of Neo Financial, a Calgary-based financial services company serving over one million Canadians.